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Fonte Commenti
2 aprile 2020
Cbonds Group CBONDS GLOBAL MONTHLY NEWSLETTER ISSUE STATISTICS AND LEAGUE TABLES for March 2020
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Virus and Russian Economy: Making Efforts to Decouple
Descrizione
As Russia remains on a week-off regime and people are supposed not to leave their homes, the number of Russians contracted with the virus kept rising at a high rate in recent days, albeit from a relatively low level (given the size of the country). Around 200,000 Russians who either returned from abroad before the borders were shut or had contacts with returnees are under medical surveillance and are supposed to stay isolated (but are not fully locked down). The Russian authorities acted relatively fast and at a relatively early stage, which gives hope that Russia still has chances to avoid greater problems. If so, then economic activities in the country may be suspended or reduced for a shorter period compared to other countries – possibly weeks rather than several months. A very preliminary estimate suggests that the impact of a week-off on economic activity was strong, but any of such estimates cannot and should not be extrapolated for future periods. The key question is about not how deep the fall was in recent days or even weeks, but how long severe restrictions on movement and business activity will last.  --- Any quantitative estimates of the macroeconomic data and forecasts in the current environment should be treated with great caution, in Russia in particular. Even Russia’s inflation numbers may be questioned as it is not very clear how “raw” data are going to be collected during the quarantine.  --- The most reliable information can currently be obtained from financial and commodity markets, as well as from daily banking and monetary statistics. --- In recent days the Russian markets calmed down and almost ignored another drop in the oil price. Brent traded at around $23/bbl on March 30 and 31 and fell by over $3/bbl (-11%) since Thursday last week, while the ruble weakened only by 1% and the long-term OFZ yield even dropped by 30 bps. Such decoupling from oil can be explained by various factors, such as purely technical and those more linked to expectations, namely the additional supply of FX from the National Wealth Fund. --- In contrast to many other EMs, Russia has enough resources to cover all debt obligations on time and in full. There are plenty debt problems other countries should face within the next 6-12 months. Hence, attention may concentrate on more problematic cases. The exposure to OFZ looks safe, but not profitable in USD terms for many investors. --- Foreigners’ holding of OFZ may drop to 27-28% in coming months. The latter translates into net offer of OFZs on the secondary market up to R350-450 bln. If the global situation deteriorates, it may happen quickly, within a month or two. In this case, pressure on the ruble may increase, and OFZ yields may jump to 8-8.5%. GKEM Analytica reports have become paid starting Jan 1, 2020. To receive full-text report, please contact us at research@gkem-analytica.com
1 aprile 2020
ICU Weekly Insight -- Weak economic growth in February
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest (March 25 - 31, 2020)
30 marzo 2020
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (Mar. 30, 2020)
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (Mar. 30, 2020)
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Latest developments in Ukraine (20 March 2020)
25 marzo 2020
ICU Bond Market Insight -- FX accounts replenished
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest (March 18 - 24, 2020)
ICU Weekly Insight -- Real GDP rises 3.2% in 2019
24 marzo 2020
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Russia Amid Global Havoc: Regulators Remain Calm. So far…
Descrizione
Last week, Russian financial markets were strongly hit by further global selloff and rising fears about the government’s financial position as the oil price fell dramatically. To remind, on Wednesday, March 18, Brent tested $25/bbl (the lowest level since 2003), twice lower than early this month. This certainly posed a challenge for investors, oil producers and authorities. The situation was aggravated by the Urals discount to Brent reaching $4/bbl as Saudis offered huge discounts to European customers thus crowding out Russian suppliers. The ruble weakened due to low oil price but it was not enough to offset the fall of the dollar-denominated price. Market participants started to price in apocalyptical scenarios, trying to understand how oil-dependent countries can survive in the current environment. If economic contraction is to be deep this year in major economies, then the oil price is unlikely to rebound any time soon. Russia’s situation looks relatively safe (at least in the short-term) first of all due to the fact that the government and banks accumulated some cushion in recent years. Hence most recent statement of the Russian Finance minister that sequestration of the budget in out of consideration is not surprising. --- The CBR’s response to the events can be treated as moderate and its message to the market was mixed. On the one hand, it decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged, announced a package of some easing in regulatory environment for financial institutions and certain steps to support population and SMEs. It was also important that the CBR allowed commercial banks not to mark-to-market their positions in bonds and equities until January 1, 2021. Instead, they should apply valuation either as of March 1 (for papers purchased before this date) or as of the day of acquisition for other papers. The latter allows banks not to print “paper” losses from securities portfolios and limits pressure on capital. On top of that, this step supports the ability of commercial banks to operate on the open market. --- The CBR, in contrast to the ECB or Fed, did not announce any extraordinary measures on financial markets or change the reserve requirement ratio. --- The OFZ market is likely to remain nervous and will largely depend on the behavior of international investors. They already started to cut exposure to ruble bonds and sold R132 bln Mar 10 through 17. In case of further turbulence, this figure may increase dramatically as the total amount of their holding is close to R3 trln. --- If the oil price in rubles stays around the current R2,000–2,200/bbl until year-end then the government can add around R3.0 trln of oil-and-gas revenues to the amount already collected in January – February even in the theoretical extreme case of the Urals price near $16/bbl until year-end. The federal budget deficit may vary in these cases from over 2% to slightly over 4% of GDP and can be financed without major problems.   GKEM Analytica reports have become paid starting Jan 1, 2020. To receive full-text report, please contact us at research@gkem-analytica.com
23 marzo 2020
ICU Фінансовий тижневик -- Реальний ВВП виріс на 3.2% у 2019
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (Mar. 23, 2020)
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (Mar 23, 2020)
20 marzo 2020
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Latest developments in Ukraine (20 March 2020)
Hong Leong Bank Weekly Market Highlights
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
19 marzo 2020
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
18 marzo 2020
ICU Bond Market Insight -- First auction after crisis begins
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
17 marzo 2020
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest March 11 - 17, 2020
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Russia and Viruses: Balances to Shrink as Global Recession Nears
Descrizione
After the Fed cut its rate nearly to zero and announced plans to massively expand its balance in an attempt to limit the effects of a forthcoming global recession the US stock market futures plummeted by around 5%, followed by a deep contraction in Europe, including Russia. This panic sent the oil price down to nearly $30/bbl. As the decease is spreading exponentially, regions and countries have been locked down, flights have been cancelled and many businesses shut, with increasingly likely chances of a global recession in 2020. The global economy seems to experience a triple shock from the virus of sanctions, the virus of trade wars and the COVID-19. Risk-off dominated the market, hence the behavior of Russian assets was not a surprise. The most paradox evidence was the widening of CDS spread, which increased from 55 bps to 225 bps since the beginning of the year. To soften the situation the CBR may start purchasing bonds on the open market, which may be considered as non-QE currently conducted by Fed. Another option is to give biggest local banks access to its balance sheet via REPO operations. § Russia’s decision to walk away from a new OPEC+ deal in the current environment could be viewed as supportive to global economic growth as lower energy costs would help consumers and businesses to allocate more funds for other needs. The lasting $30/bbl oil scenario which did not look realistic a couple of months ago now turned likely. § The share of non-oil revenues in the federal budget climbed to over 60% in recent years which implies that less spending is financed with the oil-and-gas revenues. A lower level of budgetary spending gives the Russian government more flexibility and allows it to select best options how to finance the deficit. § Russia’s major balances, such as the budget balance and that of the current account, are not at risk. What looks to be at greater risk this year is the economic growth as non-energy exports are likely to contract amid global recession or just slowdown, which may undermine the federal budget revenue flow more than one can currently expect. § Given Russia’s fundamentals, a more than quadruple increase of insurance (via CDS) looks excessive and can be explained by exaggerated fears of investors. It promises a quick rebound once the market is back to its normal state. § The spread between the long-term OFZ yield and the key rate reached a historical high – 200 bps, and carry trade definitely looks attractive for domestic investors, however the risk of an emergency rate hike by the CBR in response to market volatility keeps locals cautious despite the fact that the CBR fundamentally has no reason to change the interest rate in the near future as inflation is likely to remain close to its longer-term target in FY2020. GKEM Analytica reports have become paid starting Jan 1, 2020. To receive full-text report and for subscription, please contact us at research@gkem-analytica.com
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
16 marzo 2020
ICU Weekly Insight -- NBU cuts rate amid turbulence
ICU Фінансовий тижневик -- Облікову ставку знижено попри турбулентність
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Latest developments in Ukraine (13 March 2020)
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